Location is also important: a densely populated city is likely to have a higher R than a sparsely peopled rural area. Prime Minister Boris Johnson said the UK is close to achieving these aims - but the final test, preventing a second wave of coronavirus, comes back round to the R0 again. The reproductive value describes the average number of people an infected individual can expect to pass the coronavirus onto. According to a pre-print study from the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine published at the start of April, the average number of people an individual comes into contact with each day dropped by 73 per cent since the UK’s lockdown began. Last week Dominic Raab, Foreign Secretary, said it stood between 0.5 and 0.9. Mr Raab added: "So overall the R level is down but challenges still remain. “R0 is an indication of how much an infectious virus will spread in a population, and various things impact that value,” said Prof Ball. Governments everywhere want to force the reproduction number down from about three (the R number if we took no action) to below one. The latest R estimate for the whole of the UK, from the government's scientific advisory group Sage, is between 1.1 and 1.4. Read about our approach to external linking. An R value of 1 is a crucial threshold. According to modelling published by Imperial College London at the start of April, the R value stood somewhere between 3 and 4.6 in Europe before lockdowns came into effect. Join the Surgeons in the operating theatre, One case of coronavirus can spread to many people. The government is closely monitoring the UK's R0. In epidemiology, the basic reproduction value describes the average number of people an individual can expect to infect. You can't capture the moment people are infected. Latest R number range for the UK 1.3-1.6 Latest growth rate range for the UK +5% to +9% per day An R number between 1.3 and 1.6 means that on … Since the lockdown, scientists in the UK estimated that the UK's reproduction value had dipped below one. Our top focus is on hospital infections and care home cases. The government's more recent estimates have since backed up this data. Infection rate has risen, driven by care homes and hospitals, the Government said on May 15 – but transmission in the community is now very low. On May 14, analysis by Public Health England and Cambridge University calculated that the “R” reproduction rate has fallen to 0.4 in London, with the number of new cases halving every 3.5 days. Mathematical modellers at Imperial College London attempted to track how the number changed as isolation, social distancing and the full lockdown were introduced in the spring. It is likely that the UK, too, will have to walk a similar tightrope, lifting some restrictions while keeping a close eye on R0 and cases, and adapting its plan depending on what happens. Instead, scientists work backwards. Individual research teams come up with their own estimates, which feed into Sage. It is therefore a measure of how transmissible, or contagious, a disease is. Data - such as the number of people dying, admitted to hospital or testing positive for the virus over time - is used to estimate how easily the virus is spreading. Boris Johnson said the system would help to chart "progress and to avoid going back to square one". Cases are rising, what should I do to stop the spread? It's not rocket science - keeping people away from one another obviously makes a huge difference to the potential infection rate. If you have a high number, but ease restrictions so the reproduction number is about one, then you will continue to have a high number of cases. The Telegraph values your comments but kindly requests all posts are on topic, constructive and respectful. The reproduction number is not fixed. But the Foreign Secretary insisted that "the virus is not beaten yet - it remains deadly and infectious". The reproduction number is one of the big three. This system will be overseen by the new Joint Biosecurity Centre - and any changes to the status of the UK within the alert system will be made on the basis of the reproduction rate and the number of new coronavirus cases. The reproduction number is a way of rating coronavirus or any disease's ability to spread. What are they and how to guard against them? But a day later, the Government Office for Science announced that the latest 'R' number range for the UK was 0.7 to 1.0. It's also worth noting that the R0 is a measure of how infectious a disease is, but not how deadly. “The reason we’re interested is because it not only gives you an idea of how many people the virus is likely to infect, but also an idea about how effective your interventions need to be to end the outbreak,” said Jonathan Ball, professor of molecular virology at the University of Nottingham. But coronavirus and the disease it causes, Covid-19, can be severe and deadly. But if the number is lower the disease will eventually stop spreading, as not enough new people are being infected to sustain the outbreak. Professor Sir Ian Diamond, the UK's national statistician has since reiterated that the 'R' rate has gone up in the last two weeks as a result of the outbreak of the virus in care homes. That means, on average, one person will spread measles to 15 others. The latest R … Professor Whitty has said that it was the job of the government's Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) to inform the government the effect on the R value of every decision taken on lifting the lockdown. Find out more, Aerial view of queues of shoppers maintaining distance as a preventive measure against Covid-19 outside  a market in Peru, A ‘Handmaid’s Tale reality’: one in 130 women and girls around the world held in modern slavery, Two million pregnancies end in stillbirth every year, report finds, Why long Covid can be really grim, but is rarer than you think, Nicola Sturgeon imposes tough new restrictions on Scotland, Lives put at risk because pipeline for coronavirus antivirals is 'bare' experts warn, R0 is not the only figure the government is tracking, Boris Johnson said the UK is close to achieving these aims. The number is not fixed. THE coronavirus R rate could be above the crucial value of 1 across the UK What is the R rate and how is it estimated? Dr Jenny Harries, the deputy chief medical officer for England, also told the daily Downing Street press briefing that care homes and hospitals were now seeing many of the UK' cases, and the 'R' value would be lower elsewhere. But with cases on the rise again, more attention will be paid to local and national R rates. In Wales the number is thought to be between 0.7 and 1.2 - while in Northern Ireland it is about 1.2. The reproductive value describes the average number of people an infected individual can expect to pass the coronavirus onto. Please review our, You need to be a subscriber to join the conversation. The R0 is not the only figure the government is tracking. In just a few short weeks, we’ve all made the collective journey from pandemic ignoramuses to budding armchair virologists with a decent grasp of once-arcane terms like personal protective equipment, social distancing and "flatten the curve". How many confirmed cases are there in your area? Protect yourself and your family by learning more about Global Health Security. Estimates, published in the Government's new coronavirus strategy on May 11, put the number somewhere between 0.5 and 0.9. The reproduction number, or R value, for Covid-19 is now officially averaging above one across the UK once again - although it varies by region. The measure is used to track how many people, on average, will be infected for every one person who has the disease. Instead, it changes as our behaviour changes or as immunity develops. In the UK now, estimates of the reproductive number range from 0.7 to 1.0, up from 0.5 to 0.9 last weekend. Minister Robert Jenrick did not rule out closing pubs and restaurants in the worst-affected areas. It can be altered by a range of factors, including behaviour, which is why countries around the world have imposed stringent social distancing measures. We urge you to turn off your ad blocker for The Telegraph website so that you can continue to access our quality content in the future. We rely on advertising to help fund our award-winning journalism. The last is the number of cases, which is important for deciding when to act. If the R-value is above one then the number of cumulative cases takes off, but if it is below one then eventually the outbreak stops. When you need steady hands and nerves of steel, https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52473523. Another is severity - some people have a very mild disease that does not cause many problems. It is called the reproductive value, or "R0 " - pronounced 'R nought' or 'R zero'. The reproduction number, or R value, for Covid-19 is now officially averaging above one across the UK once again - although it varies by region. A Government source said the epidemic had now largely moved into care homes and hospitals, and that the number of infections in the community was "very, very little". One of those - from the React study - suggests recent measures such as the Rule of Six has led to a fall in its estimate. These are external links and will open in a new window. Before any measures came in, the number was well above one and the conditions were ripe for a large outbreak. As such, its government plans to keep many social distancing measures in place for a longer period than initially expected. “This would be sufficient to reduce R0 from a value from 2.6 before the lockdown to 0.62 during the lockdown, indicating that physical distancing interventions are effective,” the study, which tracked over 1,300 adults and has not yet been peer reviewed, concluded. Having a vaccine is another way to bring down the reproduction number. It refers to the 'effective reproduction number' of COVID-19. Reuters, signifies the average number of people that one infected person will pass the virus to. The rate is key, because getting it below one is one of the government's five key tests for relaxing the lockdown.