It will be hard to break out of this trajectory unless and until something really bad happens that shakes both sides out of their current stances. America’s Russia policy was no longer in the hands of the White House. To get traction for the talks and begin the slow process of rebuilding mutual trust and confidence, the two countries should develop a framework for cooperation to deal with areas of common or compatible interests and common threats, as well as for managing disagreements. How worried are both countries about the risks of nuclear escalation arising from an incident or accident involving their military forces? And without diversification, the prospects will remain limited for expanded U.S.-Russian trade and economic relations. Kazakhstani-Russian relations have been strained at times by Astana's military and economic cooperation with the United States as well as negotiations over Russia's continued use of the Baikonur Cosmodrome, however the two nations retain high-level military and economic cooperation perhaps second among former Soviet states only to that between Russia and Belarus. Putin did succeed to extend the meeting with his US counterpart to more than twice its originally planned length, but the very public backlash against the suspected Trump-Russia collusion blocked any progress achieved in the private talks between the two leaders. The U.S. foreign policy community views Russia as a hostile actor, and this view is likely to prevail for the foreseeable future. Yet it is worth exploring with Russian interlocutors how they can envision a breakdown of the long period of stability that has prevailed across Europe in the coming decade as well as their preferred vision for the continent. By 2030, if not sooner, it is conceivable that the United States and Russia might be open to establishing a new regime to rebuild and adapt the collapsing U.S.-Russian arms control architecture. He also chairs the research council and the Foreign and Security Policy Program. The United States and Russia had a robust nonproliferation agenda before their relationship cratered in 2014 and the United States pulled out of the JCPOA. For this dialogue to be meaningful, it would need to address the following questions. It will be a long time before America and Russia will reach a new normal in their relationship. The Kremlin set about preparing for an early US-Russian summit. While it saw the selection of Rex Tillerson as Trump’s Secretary of State as a welcome sign of emerging interest-based realism, the early dismissal of General Michael Flynn as the National Security Adviser rang alarm bells. But whatever label is pinned on it, the most salient point for American foreign policy is that, even though China will be the main beneficiary of the global diffusion of power, other (albeit lesser) power centers will pose major obstacles to the emergence of a hegemonic power in the critical geopolitical regions of Eurasia. It is likely to be a world where breakthroughs in various technologies, notably artificial intelligence (AI), 5G networks, and renewables, are bound to have significant effects not just on the economies of Russia and the United States and the strategic balance between them but also on the global economy and the very nature of the international system. Fax: +7 495 935-8906 Over the next decade, the most likely scenario for Europe is the continued fracturing of a united and powerful European bloc, with Moscow all too eager to exploit existing divisions.