The impact of containment measures in 187 countries and territories has almost brought global mobility to a halt. Nonetheless, we estimate that oil demand levels in China were 22% lower in March 2020 than in March 2019. In March, activity increased as certain provinces eased restrictions. Oil demand in March declined by more than 10 mb/d relative to March 2019, pushing Q1 2020 demand in advanced economies down by 2.3 mb/d relative to March 2019. Diesel demand fell by 1.5 mb/d because of lower economic activity and restrictions to rail and bus transport. In OECD countries, Europe’s oil demand is estimated to have dropped by 0.9 mb/d, America’s by 0.8 mb/d and Asia’s by 0.6 mb/d. China was the first to implement containment measures, in mid-January, and experienced the world’s largest demand reduction in Q1 2020, of 6.5%. By contrast, the warm temperatures across the northern hemisphere led to lower diesel demand for heating than in 2019. A reduced lockdown period and a strong rebound of the economy in the second half of 2020 could reduce the annual decline in oil demand to 6.5 mb/d. We estimate that combined jet fuel and kerosene deliveries fell in January by 310 kb/d, or 4%, and in February by 1.1 mb/d, or 14%, relative to 2019. Global electricity demand is set to fall by 5% in 2020, the largest decline since the Great Depression. The drop in car sales slows improvements in energy efficiency where there are fuel economy targets in place. Peak congestion in mid-March was down by 50% to 60% in cities as varied as Istanbul, Los Angeles, Mexico City, Mumbai, New York, Paris, Sao Paulo, Rio de Janeiro and Toronto, according to data supplied by the navigation device maker TomTom. The picture for EVs in Europe contrasts with China where EV sales in Q1 2020 declined even further than total car sales. Electricity demand Global electricity demand decreased by 2.5% in Q1 2020, though lockdown measures were in place for less than a month in most countries. Global oil demand is expected to be a record 9.3 mb/d lower in 2020 than in 2019. Covid‑19 containment measures will also reduce demand for other oil products, such as LPG, ethane, naphtha and residual fuel, but the impact is likely to be less acute than for gasoline, diesel and jet fuel. In the days after the world’s largest cities implemented lockdowns or other restrictions, road traffic fell sharply. Nonetheless, demand is not expected to reach pre-crisis levels before the end of the year, with December demand projected to be down 2.7 mb/d from December 2019 levels. Chinese oil demand is believed to have accounted for 1.7 mb/d of the non-OECD drop. Anecdotal evidence suggests that gasoline demand is down by 70% in both France and the United Kingdom during the confinement period. Air travel in certain regions has almost come to a halt, with aviation activity in some European countries declining more than 90%. Find out about the world, a region, or a country, Find out about a fuel, a technology or a sector, Explore the full range of IEA's unique analysis, Search, download and purchase energy data and statistics, Search, filter and find energy-related policies, Shaping a secure and sustainable energy future, Clean Energy Ministerial Hydrogen Initiative, Clean Energy Transitions in Emerging Economies, Global Commission for Urgent Action on Energy Efficiency. China’s National Bureau of Statistics and Chinese Customs data on refinery production and trade indicate a decline in total oil demand in February of over 2.5 mb/d, or 20%, relative to February 2019. Gasoline was the fuel with the largest absolute decline in demand related to Covid‑19 containment measures. Car sales in the United States also experienced major declines, down 38% in March, while sales in India in the same month fell 50%. Demand in April is estimated to be 29 mb/d lower than a year ago, falling to a level last seen in 1995. For 2020 as a whole, we forecast gasoline consumption to decline by 2.9 mb/d, or 11%. Demand in April is estimated to be 29 mb/d lower than a year ago, falling to a level last seen in 1995. Across the European Union, March car sales fell 55% from 2019 levels. Three reasons converged to explain this drop. As global aviation activity collapsed, jet fuel was the oil product with the largest decline in demand relative to 2019. Data show that global flight numbers were down 70% at the start of April from a year earlier. Keep up to date with our latest news and analysis by subscribing to our regular newsletter. Reduced mobility is estimated to have lowered world gasoline demand by 1.7 mb/d in Q1 2020 compared with Q1 2019. The oil outlook crucially depends on the duration of the Covid‑19 outbreak and the strength of the subsequent restart of economic activity. For Q2 2020, demand is expected to be 23.1 mb/d below 2019 levels. Nonetheless, as lockdowns spread, global aviation activity declined a staggering 60% by the end of Q1 2020. Percentage change in electricity demand in selected regions, 1970–2020 United States European Union China World -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% Overall, for 2020, diesel consumption is expected to fall by 2 mb/d (7%). You can unsubscribe at any time by clicking the link at the bottom of any IEA newsletter. The damage done by Covid‑19 to oil demand beyond China became clearer during March, as the outbreak moved to Europe and the United States and a growing number of countries imposed strict containment measures. Global oil demand is expected to be a record 9.3 mb/d lower in 2020 than in 2019. The International Air Transport Association expects flight capacity utilisation to average 65% below 2019 levels in Q2 2020, 40% in Q3 2020 and 10% in Q4 2020. Car sales in China declined 82% in February relative to 2019, before recovering to 48% below 2019 levels in March. IEA Global Review 2020 COVID-19 Help. While demand has no doubt been affected by containment, owing to the closure of shops in many countries, several basic activities and industries have remained open, thus providing a demand floor. 18 May 2020 12:12pm. Looking ahead to the rest of 2020, we expect demand for jet fuel and kerosene to decrease 20% in the second half of the year relative to 2019. Impacts are largest in the European Union and United States, but extend to all corners of the world. This can reduce declines in gasoline and diesel demand in markets with limited expansion in total fleet size, such as the European Union and the United States. Find help for households and businesses impacted by COVID-19 and what the government is doing about energy . Gasoline demand, in particular, could be supported by unwillingness to use public transport as recent trends show in China. As a result of declines in mobility, in March alone world oil demand plummeted by a record 10.8 mb/d year-on-year. Global Energy Review 2020 In response to the exceptional circumstances stemming from the coronavirus pandemic, the annual IEA Global Energy Review has expanded its coverage to include real-time analysis of developments to date in 2020 and possible directions for the rest of the year. Global coal demand was hit the hardest, falling by almost 8% compared with the first quarter of 2019. We expect gasoline demand to remain under pressure in the second half of 2020, falling by 590 kb/d on average, because of the postponement of large events such as the Tokyo Olympics and because some containment measures are bound to stay in place in some countries. The International Maritime Organization’s sulphur regulations on bunker fuel, which took effect at the start of the year, offset part of the drop by boosting diesel demand in the shipping sector. IEA (2020), Global Energy Review 2020, IEA, Paris https://www.iea.org/reports/global-energy-review-2020.