The United States maintains more than twenty times the number of nuclear warheads that China does (1,350 compared to 45 deployed and 4,000 compared to … The PLA will attempt to inflict sufficient casualties on US forces that future US decision-makers will hesitate to use force against the PRC. These newer U.S. planes theoretically enjoy a massive edge in long-range aerial combat and in penetrating enemy airspace. The first task requires the deployment of PLAN surface forces, possibly in combination with PLAAF airborne forces, to seize an objective. Similarly, the survival of the US-led alliance system requires that the United States successfully defeat Chinese aggression; if it cannot, the alliance system could deteriorate and collapse. As the National Interest points out, the conflict would be like no other in history; it would be multi-domain. Instead, a brewing crisis will steadily escalate over a few incidents, finally triggering a set of steps on the part of the US military that indicate to Beijing that Washington is genuinely prepared for war. The question over the long-term for China will be how well it can keep up in the tech game. 1, and Russia, No. At this moment, China will need to decide whether to push forward or back down. This has changed. The threat of high intensity combat will also disrupt global shipping patterns, causing potentially severe bottlenecks in industrial production. This requires globe-spanning logistical capabilities including hundreds of transport planes, aerial refueling tankers to keep jet fighters and transports aloft, and amphibious transports and carriers to convey Marine units. ... a U.S.-China war would pose a real threat to the American homeland. The United States maintains more than twenty times the number of nuclear warheads that China does (1,350 compared to 45 deployed and 4,000 compared to 270 when including stockpiles, according to the Arms Control Association). America seems to crank out new defense tech all the time. The most recent round targeted Chinese imports, from meat to musical instruments, with a 15% duty. Titled “A Deadly Game: East China Sea Crisis 2030” the simulation unfolds as follows: “…A Chinese flotilla lands 50 soldiers on Uotsuri Jima, an island in the East China Sea that is part of the Senkakus, an island chain owned by Japan but also claimed by China. Likewise, all important decisions in the PLA are made by Communist Party committees that are dominated by political officers, not by operators. China will also need to get good at maintaining and improving world class equipment under the worst of conditions. However, on the other, it is relatively strong in the realm of electronics and is happy to copy both Western and Russian technologies. Unless Beijing is certain that Seoul and Tokyo will both throw in for the United States (a doubtful prospect given their hostility to one another), it may spend more time restraining Pyongyang than pushing it into the conflict. Yet, the Chinese government is aware that the large size of its forces in part reflects an antiquated mid-twentieth century force structure emphasizing massive, low-quality ground armies. Two superpowers eye each other uneasily across the Pacific—one well established after decades of Cold War conflict, the other a rising power eager to reclaim regional hegemony. “The shrinking democratic space of Hong Kong is an important issue for the Taiwanese at the moment,”  explained Ketty Chen, a leading thinker in the Democratic Progressive Party of Taiwan. Call 896 6000. China today has the largest military on the planet, with two million active personnel in the People’s Liberation Army (PLA). Except in the case of a war that breaks out on the Korean Peninsula, the first task involves either defeating a Chinese attempt to land forces, or preventing the reinforcement and resupply of those troops before forcing their surrender. Are wildfires the end of the Californian dream? The BBC is not responsible for the content of external sites. A war between the United States and China would transform some aspects of the geopolitics of East Asia, but would also leave many crucial factors unchanged. The United States has a massive arsenal in a nuclear ‘triad'. VideoFormer pro-surfer survives close call with shark, One man's battle against 'toxic invader' VideoOne man's battle against 'toxic invader', Long queues as Americans vote early in US election. Fortunately, despite profoundly different political systems, China and the United States are not as intrinsically hostile to each other as were the West and the Soviet Union—in fact, they have a high degree of economic interdependence. The PLA’s last major armed conflict was a not very successful punitive invasion of Vietnam in 1979. (Moscow has a similar stance, claiming it may use tactical nuclear weapons to ‘de-escalate' a conventional war.) Thankfully the chances are remote it will ever happen. 4. Any intervention on the part of the DPRK runs the risk of triggering Japanese and South Korean counter-intervention, and that math doesn’t work out for China. While it might not be sexy, innovation and keeping ahead of the curve would pay dividends in a war against America when we look out over the long term. With China the rising power and the US the “status quo” eager to suppress Beijing’s rise, one wonders what the eventual outcome will be. .css-1hlxxic-PromoLink:link{color:inherit;}.css-1hlxxic-PromoLink:visited{color:#696969;}.css-1hlxxic-PromoLink:link,.css-1hlxxic-PromoLink:visited{-webkit-text-decoration:none;text-decoration:none;}.css-1hlxxic-PromoLink:link:hover,.css-1hlxxic-PromoLink:visited:hover,.css-1hlxxic-PromoLink:link:focus,.css-1hlxxic-PromoLink:visited:focus{color:#B80000;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;}.css-1hlxxic-PromoLink:link::after,.css-1hlxxic-PromoLink:visited::after{content:'';position:absolute;top:0;right:0;bottom:0;left:0;z-index:2;}US-China trade war: 'We're all paying for this'. This doesn’t necessarily mean that the U.S. Navy (USN) and U.S. Air Force (USAF) have to wait for Chinese missiles to rain down upon them, but the United States will almost certainly require some clear, public signal of Chinese intent to escalate to high-intensity, conventional military combat before it can begin engaging Chinese forces. So how much would the above impact the much-needed rapid reaction time essential to make quick decisions once the bombs begin to drop in a war with America? This might be the biggest challenge for China when we look out over the long term (10-20 years in the future) in a conflict with America. Trade war: US-China trade battle in charts, Sharp exchanges in US vice-presidential clash. But, China is slowly developing multi-national institutions such as the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and its aspirational Silk Road project in hopes of fostering stronger ties. The most recent round targeted Chinese imports, from meat to musical instruments, with a 15% duty.