To summarize, in contrast to past recoveries, there appears to be little hope for a sustained upside boost to the overall economy from the real estate sector. Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD)2010“Economic Policy Reforms: Going for Growth 2010” (Paris). In advanced economies, recovery is predicted to be unusually sluggish compared with recovery following previous recessions, with households and financial institutions seeking to repair balance sheets, credit growth constrained, and persistent demand and employment uncertainty. Notwithstanding a relatively healthy growth outlook, emerging economies are unlikely to fully compensate for the lower demand from advanced economies over the medium term. Although there is reasonable agreement on the likely magnitude and effects of fiscal measures, the likely magnitude of spread-related shocks is subject to considerable uncertainty. Abstract o The World Economic Outlook (WEO) database is updated twice a year (April and September) as part of the publication of the World Economic Outlook Report. revisions to countries’ historical GDP data and projections. 4Simple average of prices of U.K. Brent, Dubai, and West Texas Intermediate crude oil. 3 Consumer price index for industrial workers. Also discussed is how well the growth indicators fit the past behavior of quarterly real GDP growth and how well they forecast relative to a simple time-series benchmark. World Economic Outlook in Maps offers select Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND Published Date: October 2010 Slade Margaret E.1982“Cycles in Natural-Resource Commodity Prices: An Analysis of the Frequency Domain,”Journal of Environmental Economics and ManagementVol. World GDP is forecast to expand by 4.8 percent in 2010 and by 4.2 percent in 2011 (Table 1.1; Figure 1.13). Note: Real effective exchange rates are assumed to remain constant at the levels prevailing during August 4−September 1, 2010. 1 Aggregates are computed on the basis of purchasing-power-parity (PPP) weights, unless noted otherwise. However, this should not induce advanced economies to postpone the adoption of measures that reduce fiscal deficits over the medium term. Other FSU: other former Soviet Union. 1 Comprises China, India, Russia, South Africa, Turkey, and economies listed in footnotes 4, 6, and 7. There is also a pressing need to reduce ongoing uncertainty about the regulatory environment and to implement long-awaited reforms. The measure of scarcity used in this analysis suggests that base metal prices are only about halfway through the current period of trend price increases. Matheson Troy D.2010“An Analysis of the Informational Content of New Zealand Data Releases: The Importance of Business Opinion Surveys,”Economic ModellingVol. In China, deviation of house prices from fundamentals is estimated to be higher in Beijing, Nanjing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen than in other cities (Ahuja and Porter, 2010). Their governments should adopt additional measures soon to reduce the likelihood of slippage. Prices may rise faster than the rate of interest, reflecting permanent shifts in demand that cannot be met by a compensating change in supply due to physical or technological constraints (for example, the finite availability of reserves or deteriorating ore quality). This can help build confidence in public finances without necessarily detracting from demand today. However, growth is now projected at 6¾ percent on a Q4-over-Q4 basis, which represents a downward revision of ½ percentage point. Available at www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2009/wp09203.pdf. The area’s dependence on bank credit is restraining demand, as banks continue to be unusually cautious in lending. The values for inflation risks and oil market risks are entered with the opposite sign since they represent downside risks to growth. Investment in machinery and equipment is already showing strength in a number of advanced economies. “Forecasts Begin” is the beginning of the out-of-sample evaluation period. This was better than expected in the April 2010 WEO, mostly due to robust growth in Asia. Unilateral measures should be avoided as they could have unintended consequences, especially if market confidence suffers. Low-Pass-Filtered Metal Prices: First Principal Component, Demand Growth Contributions and Market Balances, Recent Developments in Markets for Major Food Crops, Stylized Example Illustrating Heat Map Colors. Therefore, inventories will turn from being a supportive to a neutral factor in the recovery. 964–85. Against this backdrop, price spillovers to other major food crops—through substitution linkages on the consumption and supply sides—have been limited so far. This applies to a broad range of enterprises, such as the GSEs, many public sector banks in Germany and elsewhere, and many “too-important-to-fail” entities. 1, Global Indicators Sources: IMF, International Financial Statistics; and IMF staff calculations. Otherwise, policy opacity could hinder banks’ willingness to supply credit and support the recovery. The potential effects of the full set of reforms on credit and growth are hard to determine. The level of potential output defines the point toward which the economy should be expected to gravitate over the indefinite future and provides an estimate of incipient inflation or deflation pressure. In some economies in emerging Europe, by contrast, central banks have cut rates in response to diminishing price pressures and growing uncertainty in western Europe (for example, Hungary, Romania, Russia). Unemployment is expected to stay high for some time in many advanced economies. Fiscal tightening should be a top priority in emerging economies that have relatively high public debt and are struggling to absorb large capital inflows productively. Even in a best-case scenario, however, China will provide only a partial offset to the weaker demand from advanced economies, given the relatively small size of both overall Chinese consumption and Chinese imports of consumer goods. Nimble policy responses and stronger economic frameworks are helping many emerging economies rev up internal demand and attract capital flows. In the euro area and Japan, inventory drawdowns were more limited during the downturn, possibly reflecting labor hoarding that kept production up. Strong production through July will likely continue to propel investment while inventory building decelerates. Residential real estate index for the United Kingdom is the Halifax index. The common factors themselves are, in turn, estimated using information from a potentially large set of economic indicators. Some of the larger, fast-growing emerging economies, faced with rising inflation or asset price pressures, have appropriately tightened monetary conditions, and markets are pricing in further moves.