Coverage is provided for all OECD member countries as well as for selected non-member countries. Part 2: Targeting Longer-Term Interest Rates”, blog post, Brookings Institution, March 24. ← 14. ← 16. UNCTAD (2019), World Investment Report 2019, United Nations, Geneva. 1574, OECD Publishing, Paris, https://doi.org/10.1787/d3227540-en. This issue includes a general assessment of … OBR (2019), Fiscal Risks Report, July, Office for Budget Responsibility. The Outlook puts forward a consistent set of projections for output, employment, prices, fiscal and current account balances. 109/4. OECD (2017), OECD Employment Outlook 2017, OECD Publishing, Paris. ← 17. (2016b), “What Tools Does the Fed Have Left? Borio, C. and L. Gambacorta (2017), “Monetary policy and bank lending in a low interest rate environment: Diminishing effectiveness?”, BIS Working Papers, No.612, February, Basel. CBO (2019), An Update to the Budget and Economic Outlook: 2019 to 2029, Congress of the United States, Congressional Budget Office, August. OECD (2019c), OECD Interim Economic Outlook, September 2019, OECD Publishing, Paris. These include demand and gross domestic product (GDP), deflators and prices, general government accounts, households and business sectors, productivity, employment, labour market, financial data, foreign exchange market, interest rates, balance of payments, international trade, supply block, oil market and other raw materials. ", OECD Economics Department Working Papers, No. The OECD Economic Outlook is the OECD's twice-yearly analysis of the major economic trends and prospects for the next two years. Engstrom, E. and S. Sharpe (2018), “The near-term forward yield spread as a leading indicator: A less distorted mirror”, Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, No. According to asset pricing theory, the risk premium is determined by the covariance of the asset return and investors’ consumption or wealth. 107 (Double-hit scenario) covers annual and quarterly data from 1960 until 2021. The OECD Economic Outlook is the OECD's twice-yearly analysis of the major economic trends and prospects for the next two years. is the online library of the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) featuring its books, papers and statistics and is the knowledge base of OECD's analysis and data. 25416. Approval was partially successful, following selected items could not be processed due to error, http://instance.metastore.ingenta.com/content/collection/eo-data-en, South Georgia and the South Sandwich Islands, OECD Economic Outlook: Statistics and Projections, OECD Product Market Regulation Statistics. ← 12. The ECB has already bought around EUR 466 billion (4% of the euro area GDP) of corporate bonds, asset-backed securities and covered bonds. US term premia, which are estimated to have been around or below zero in recent years, have been pushed down by strong demand for longer-term government bonds. Policy and other assumptions underlying the projections, 2. Kierzenkowski, R. et al. Demiralp, S., J. Eisenschmidt and T. Vlassopoulos (2019), “Negative interest rates, excess liquidity and retail deposits: Banks’ reaction to unconventional monetary policy in the euro area”, ECB Working Paper Series, No. Forthcoming developments in major non-OECD economies are also evaluated in detail. It provides in-depth coverage of the main economic issues and the policy measures required to foster growth in each member country. (2016), “The Economic Consequences of Brexit: A Taxing Decision”, OECD Economic Policy Papers, No. Tariffs that have been introduced or announced by the United States and China on their bilateral trade in 2018 and 2019 are maintained throughout 2020 and 2021 in the projections, and no other new tariff measures are assumed. There is no single authority representing both Turkish and Greek Cypriot people on the Island. ← 10. This database is a comprehensive and consistent macroeconomic database of the OECD economies, covering expenditures, foreign trade, output, labour markets, interest and exchange rates, balance of payments, and government debt. This document, as well as any data and map included herein, are without prejudice to the status of or sovereignty over any territory, to the delimitation of international frontiers and boundaries and to the name of any territory, city or area. Brunnermeier, M. K. and Y. Koby (2016), “The reversal interest rate”, mimeo, Princeton University. 2018–055, July. Imports from the European Union were USD 62 billion in 2018, of which USD 28 billion came from Germany. Where there is insufficient information to determine budget outcomes, underlying primary balances are kept unchanged in relation to potential GDP, implying no discretionary change in the fiscal stance. Brunnermeier, M. K. and L.H. Indeed, accounting for term premia in probit regressions based on the slope of the yield curve reduced the implied risk of a recession in 2018 (Johansson and Meldrum, 2018). BIS (2019), “Unconventional monetary policy tools: A cross-country analysis”, Report prepared by a Working Groups chaired by Simon M. Potter (Federal Reserve Bank of New York) and Frank Smets (European Central Bank), Bank for International Settlements, Committee on the Global Financial System, CGFS Papers, No 63. It also comprises statistics on demand and gross domestic product (GDP), deflators and prices, general government accounts, households and business sectors, labour market, financial data, foreign exchange market, balance of payments, supply block, oil market and other raw materials. A similar transaction occurred in 2017. Cúrdia, V. (2019), “How Much Could Negative Rates Have Helped the Recovery?”, FRBSF Economic Letter, 2019-04, February 4, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. In the four months to July, Eurostat estimates suggest that euro area merchandise export volumes to the United Kingdom were 14½ per cent lower than in the previous four-month period (non-annualised). Furthermore, only a limited number of series is made available compared to past editions. (2016c), “What Tools Does the Fed Have Left? OECD (2016a),”Skills Matter, Further results from the Survey of Adult Skills”, OECD Publishing, Paris. Coverage is provided for all OECD member countries as well as for selected non-member countries. 26, Central Bank of Chile. Coverage is provided for all OECD member countries as well as for selected non-member countries. Çelik, S., G. Demirtaş and M. Isaksson (2019), “Corporate Bond Markets in a Time of Unconventional Monetary Policy”, OECD Capital Market Series, OECD Publishing, Paris. Banks will pay the average interest rate of the main refinancing operations over the duration of each of the TLTRO operations. Bernanke, B. Structural reforms that have been implemented or announced for the projection period are taken into account, but no further reforms are assumed to take place. Brainard, L. (2018), “What Do We Mean by Neutral and What Role Does It Play in Monetary Policy?”, Remarks at the Detroit Economic Club, September 12. The OECD Economic Outlook is the OECD's twice-yearly analysis of the major economic trends and prospects for the next two years. Note by TurkeyThe information in this document with reference to “Cyprus” relates to the southern part of the Island. 106 covers annual and quarterly data from 1960 until 2021. However, assessment of the monetary policy stance is complicated by highly uncertain estimates of neutral interest rates, which makes it difficult to use them reliably in practical policy applications (Clark and Kozicki, 2005), especially when the investment-saving and Phillips curves are flat (Fiorentini et al., 2018). IEA estimates suggest that total OPEC oil supply in the first nine months of 2019 was 4.6% lower than the same period in 2018. ← 6. The OECD Economic Outlook is the OECD's twice-yearly analysis of the major economic trends and prospects for the next two years. Blanchard, O. The use of this work, whether digital or print, is governed by the Terms and Conditions to be found at http://www.oecd.org/termsandconditions. 7/19. Clark, T. and S. Kozicki (2005), “Estimating equilibrium real interest rates in real time”, The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, 16(3), 395-413. This dataset comprises a comprehensive set of quantitative indicators that allow for a comparison of policy settings across OECD countries and selected non-member economies: Argentina, Brazil, China, Colombia, Costa Rica, India, Indonesia, Lithuania, the Russian Federation and South Africa. ← 5. These include demand and gross domestic product (GDP), deflators and prices, general government accounts, households and business sectors, productivity, employment, labour market, financial data, foreign exchange market, interest rates, balance of payments, international trade, supply block, oil market and other raw materials. The information in this document relates to the area under the effective control of the Government of the Republic of Cyprus. Forthcoming developments in major non-OECD economies are also evaluated in detail. ← 9. Select one or more items in both lists to browse for the relevant content, Browse the selectedThemes and / or countries. The end of the transition period is assumed to occur smoothly, but the final outcome of the agreement on the future relationship between the European Union and the United Kingdom is assumed to be uncertain through 2020-21. Forthcoming developments in major non-OECD economies are also evaluated in detail. ← 8. For the non-OECD regions, foreign trade and current account series are available. 15/170, Washington D.C. Johansson, P. and A. Meldrum (2018), “Predicting Recession Probabilities Using the Slope of the Yield Curve”, FEDS Notes, Washington: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. OECD iLibrary US imports of cars and car parts totalled USD 184 billion in 2018 (0.9% of US GDP). is the online library of the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) featuring its books, papers and statistics and is the knowledge base of OECD's analysis and data. The central bank may consult with independent fiscal councils and governments. Ritz, R. A. and A. Walther (2015), “How Do Banks Respond to Increased Funding Uncertainty”, Journal of Financial Intermediation, 24(3), 386-410. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jfi.2014.12.001. Focus Notes on selected macroeconomic and structural issues, Focus Note 1: Addressing current trade tensions: Market-distorting government support, Focus Note 2: Escaping the low-inflation trap, Focus Note 3: Rebalancing the policy mix in the euro area, Focus Note 4: Global policy co-operation is needed in the event of a deeper downturn. Initially, the cost of borrowing was set to be 0.1 percentage point higher. Mohl, P., G., Mourre and K. Stovicek (2019), “Automatic Fiscal Stabilisers in the EU: Size and Effectiveness”, European Commission Economic Brief, 45.