Other countries took analogous steps. And businesses face more than the usual amount of uncertainty—and uncertainty plays an important role in business investment.13. Nostradamus predictions, written around 500 years ago, are still going around the world today, and the French man is one of the most important figures of occult art. There are questions about the financial system, and the ability to fund new investments. See Terms of Use for more information. In the United States, Deloitte refers to one or more of the US member firms of DTTL, their related entities that operate using the "Deloitte" name in the United States and their respective affiliates. Thirty-three percent of nursing assistants, 39 percent of orderlies, and 39 percent of psychiatric aides are black.”. And since sales of these assets will precede hiking the Fed funds rate, we have assumed that the funds rate remains near zero over the five-year forecast horizon. March 2020 Update: While the Corona Virus scare is punishing China's economy, the US seems to caught an economic flu, driven by media reports. First, we calculate that the US$600 supplement accounted for about 4.5% of all personal income in June. Slowing population growth means that the demand for housing will grow slowly. Predicted range of electoral college votes, The probability of an electoral-college tie is, Rigorous analysis of the people, polls and policies shaping the presidential and congressional races, Fox News/Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research. Overall, the budget tips exports to fall by 9% in 2020-21 and then grow by 2% in 2021-22. Children who attend private schools, or public schools in affluent areas, are likely to have better educational opportunities during this pandemic than students in poorer and/or rural areas. More industry concentration. Some analysts foresee the pandemic accelerating deglobalization as national governments begin to compete for scarce medical supplies and even knowledge.14 In the midst of the pandemic, the US-China trade war shows no sign of abating. What matters now is what we see through the windshield. Those practices will also raise prices—and reduce productivity. Racial and socioeconomic inequality will increase. Here’s a breakdown of the main predictions, Last modified on Tue 6 Oct 2020 11.19 BST. We asked nine leading global thinkers for their predictions. The economic benefits of a Democratic stimulus package would outweigh higher corporate taxes, says the investment bank. Our model works by simulating 20,000 paths for the election, each time varying candidates’ vote shares to account for polling error, changes in turnout or the political environment and the effects of campaigning. At the end of July, the government announced that GDP had fallen by a record amount in the second quarter.1 At that point, the economy had actually begun to recover. Recent bankruptcies make clear that e-commerce is expanding as physical retail shrinks. And the monthly pattern can make a big difference in the reported change in GDP. Consequently, we’ll emerge on the other side in a weakened position. See Georgia, “Governor Kemp’s statewide executive order: Guidelines for businesses” for an example of the regulations businesses are expected to follow to help prevent the spread of the disease. Discover Deloitte and learn more about our people and culture. The lag in publishing GDP—and the quarterly estimation period—had us looking in a rearview mirror and reading about a huge decrease when more recent data told us a different story. See “Funding, credit, liquidity, and loan facilities,” April 30, 2020. Just as the “China price” held inflation in check for years, an attempt to avoid being dependent on China might just create inflation pressures in the later years of our forecast horizon. Thanks to Lester Gunnion, who played a key role in developing and producing this forecast. We assume that the sudden drop in unemployment insurance payments has the expected impact on consumer spending and GDP in August and September. But—and it’s an important but—the economy will never regain the pre-COVID trend line. The traditional concerns about the Fed buying private assets have gone out the window, and the Fed has created methods for direct lending from US states, counties, and cities (Municipal Liquidity Facility), small and medium-sized businesses (Main Street Lending Program), and purchases of corporate bonds (Primary and Secondary Corporate Credit Facilities).17 This is unprecedented: The Fed has traditionally avoided lending directly, avoiding the complications of dealing with nonfinancial firms.