Amid this unprecedented uncertainty, what we know is that the world will be much poorer than it would have been without the virus. Most countries, however, were compelled to resort to lockdowns of varying degrees. Click to share on LinkedIn (Opens in new window), Click to share on Twitter (Opens in new window), Click to share on Facebook (Opens in new window), Ensuring a strong, inclusive and sustainable recovery from the COVID-19 crisis in Israel, Offering better labour-market opportunities to all Malaysian women: a win-win strategy. The OECD is working hard to support the necessary policy response. Policymakers need to make an extra-effort to be sure support reaches those who need it most. As long as the virus is widespread somewhere, the threat will remain everywhere, and economic costs will persist as some borders remain closed. In the confinement phase of the Covid-19 crisis, policymakers worldwide used a rich policy toolbox. ); The global economy is facing unprecedented uncertainty as the evolution of the Covid-19 pandemic weighs heavily on the economic outlook. In the event of such a “double hit”, the fall in global GDP would be over 7½ per cent, and we would be looking at more than 40 million additional people being unemployed in OECD economies by the end of this year. For sectors where the shock is seen as temporary, short-term working schemes may continue, with more flexibility to allow people to take on new activity. setTimeout( We would usually release the Outlook in the context of our Ministerial Council Meeting, with Ministers coming to Paris. h�b```�����" cc`a�X��������0Y��!o���1'L��! Second, we will see more services move online and increased online retail sales. Today we launch our latest Economic Outlook. Support to firms must evolve to let non-viable firms go and encourage viable ones to grow. OECD to release Economic Outlook on Wednesday 10 June 2020 04/06/2020 - The OECD will publish its latest Economic Outlook, containing analysis and projections for its 37 member countries and other major economies on Wednesday 10 June 2020. Still, over 50% of policy support for energy in recovery packages is going to ‘brown’ fossil fuels. It seems clear today that we will have to live with the virus for some time, with our principal defence being tigher hygiene standards and physical distancing measures. Variable. But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning”. Living standards fall less sharply than with a second wave but five years of income growth is lost across the economy by 2021. Please reload CAPTCHA. OECD projected that India may see 7.3% contraction if coronavirus strikes again. But it would be imprudent to infer from this that the recovery is V-shaped and global income can rapidly return to pre-crisis levels. For further general information on the Economic Outlook, contact Lawrence Speer in the OECD Media Office (+33 1 4524 9700). An earlier version misstated the OECD’s June estimate for 2021 global growth. Because developments are so varied across countries and uncertainty is so high, we have produced two scenarios around our central projection. Individuals in vulnerable sectors also need policy support. We are also committed to providing the data, the analysis and the policy advice to get the world through this crisis and onto a better path. The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) projected that India’s economy will contract 7.3 per cent in the current fiscal year if there is a second wave of the coronavirus (Covid-19) later this year. Some countries are taking measures, but the effort needs to be bolder. %%EOF Fiscal support will have to continue. What is truly extraordinary, though, is the context for this Economic Outlook, and its consequences for the global economy. If our central projection of a gradual recovery, after the rebound, materialises, global income will be USD 7 trillion lower by the end of 2021 than what we projected less than a year ago in November 2019. Journalists requesting an electronic version in advance of the release time agree to respect OECD embargo conditions. On the upside, if businesses and households were to become more confident because a vaccine or treatment is in sight or only mild containment measures were required to contain virus outbreaks, world growth would be stronger (figure). Organisation for Economic, Global economy faces a tightrope walk to recovery. Each country has been hit in a different way, and… External sectors, trade and payments Current account balance as a percentage of GDP Government accounts General government gross financial assets as a percentage of GDP General government gross financial liabilities as a percentage of GDP General government net lending as a percentage of GDP General government … This gives reason to hope that we have reached the trough of activity in the bulk of the global economy – even if the worst is still to come in some countries. This is pushing debt up by around 15 percentage points of GDP across the OECD, but was necessary, and will remain so for 2021. In the case of a double-hit by the pandemic, the OECD pegged global economic contraction at 7.6 per cent in 2020 and six per cent in case of a single-hit scenario. A women looks at her smartphone as she walks in a shopping area on August 14, 2020, in … As economies began to reopen, activities that could operate with physical distancing rebounded strongly. %PDF-1.6 %���� Amid a background of public disapproval with the evolution of inequality, policies will need to improve on transparency, increasing competition and reducing collusion, and finding the means for a more efficient delivery of public services. Post was not sent - check your email addresses! Here’s a list of updated 2020 national GDP […]. Journalists must register to participate in an interactive presentation of the Economic Outlook, via Zoom: https://meetoecd1.zoom.us/webinar/register/WN_P2RwBNoMQ42fw-oDFHjytw. All rights reserved. The OECD hosts 1500 events annually with some 140,000 delegates, bringing together representatives from governments, parliaments, international organisations, business, labour, and civil society to exchange ideas, share experiences, and forge progress across a range of policy areas. The need for skilful policy action is equally important during the next phase of the crisis. On the downside, if confidence remains weak because outbreaks were to intensify or stricter containment measures were required, household spending and business investment would weaken and the recovery would slow, and the loss in output would be USD11 trillion. But actually, we need more than that. })(120000); Time limit is exhausted. What is required now is larger in scale than those 20th century initiatives, and it must be at a global level, so that greater resilience, inclusiveness and sustainability can be enjoyed everywhere. Even if this crisis is strikingly different from others we have experienced and uncertainty is extremely high, we have seen that policy matters. This is roughly equivalent to losing a year’s production from France and Germany combined. And of course the climate emergency has not gone away. In the words of Winston Churchill, “this is not the end. 316 0 obj <>stream Furthermore, the first phase of the crisis has shown that barriers to trade can be hugely disruptive for an efficient supply of goods and services. Investment of Abu Dhabi Investment Authority (ADIA) into RRVL, Banking Sector : A debit card facility for customers availing the Loan Against Securities, Edristi Navatra Current Affairs September-2020, http://www.oecd.org/economic-outlook/june-2020/. Policy will continue to play an important role in the next phase of the crisis. There are a few glimpses of such vision, for example, with the Franco-German agreement on the EU Recovery Fund, and the recent successful Global Vaccine Summit, which will help to roll out a future COVID-19 vaccine on a global scale. And in supporting investment for the recovery, they can direct public investment and incentivise private investment to accelerate the transition to a low-carbon economy. These measures included short-term working schemes, furloughed employment, credit or grants to firms and tax holidays. And that is in the scenario with no second wave of infections, requiring renewed lockdowns. ��Ŏ'��W��>�\�%0������se&q���V�:�9qA�ꍚ��E^@v_����]9W10Ht4000�Tt�@�Zw����QB3���P� T)� �V �ŁX�a�^����@W3p'0�3�5��0�mP:���P��IC3�e���ך��q6��1?�� ���*~��>���9��2�30a(bNY�d�`��)�0dKCr��x8�3f[ iF b �K �t�\�.�`_T�9@� ��UH We are all in this together. My third and last point is that no country can address a pandemic crisis alone. The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) has revised its outlook for 2020, predicting a smaller recession of the global economy and slightly greater potential for growth.. We know that many of the worst-off and most vulnerable people are being hit hardest by the pandemic and its effects: the young, women, those in precarious or informal jobs, those without savings, those with limited digital connectivity. The Economic Outlook presentation will also be webcast live, without registration, at: https://oecdtv.webtv-solution.com/6553/or/press_conference_economic_outlook.html. One part of that effort will be ensuring that multinational enterprises pay their share of tax. ... Economic Outlook No 107 - June 2020 Double Hit Scenario : By country Customise. Policymakers have to aim higher than trying to restore our pre-pandemic living standards: they need to deal with pre-crisis trends that threaten our future and seize the opportunity for change. h�bbd```b``�"W��r�Rfk��ɴ �2,� , � �E�$?�L �����@d\%�Ԛ"U�H�-`ه@��p3�dg�1��?fd`bd`\�F2�����w� Pc_